Sociology of population explosion and health security for Nigeria by 2050

Abstract

Background: Nigeria with an estimated population of 198 million at annual growth rate of 2.6%, is experiencing demographic transition with serious implication for health security. The micro factors influencing population explosion are literacy, occupational status, age at first marriage, sex preference, social security and objections to birth control. While the macro factors include culture and tradition, patriarchy, pro-natalism (traditional urge to have descendant), resource sharing, poverty, age structure of the population, ethnicity and heterogeneity, religion, population and health policy. Situation analysis: By year 2050, Nigeria's population will increase from 195.4million to 278.8 million, which can either be a strength or weakness to the nation's growth and development. While life expectancy may increase from 53.76 to 69.3 there will also be increase in dependency ratio. Although, the SWOT analysis indicates that population increase may result in improved productivity and labor force strengthening, this may stampede development if policies and programmes are not tailored towards basic developmental indicators. Conclusion: Short term intervention should include review of existing population and health policies to identify implementation bottlenecks; identify indigenous resources for effective intervention; and seek support for intervention by conduct stakeholders' engagement meetings. Medium term plan is development of programme of action and curriculum for capacity building. Long term plan targets policy formulation and legislation. Funding for the activities can be sourced from development agencies namely UNDP, IJNICEF, UNFPA, EU, World Bank, Federal Government of Nigeria and Philanthropist.